September 20th – Massive Corporate Tax cut and it’s impact on equity Markets

Amid growing concerns over the economic slowdown, the union finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman announced a slew of incentives aimed at stimulating a flagging economy whist maintaining emphasis on domestic manufacturing and demand. One of the most important announcement was lowering of Corporate tax rate from ~35% (including surcharge) to 25.17% a massive reduction of almost 10%.

This move will help companies to increase profitability. One hopes some of these benefits are passed on to consumers and that some are reinvested for business expansion.

This is a permanent benefit for corporates. Even-lower tax rate (of 15% – almost the lowest tax rate globally) for new manufacturing companies will make Indian manufacturing significantly competitive. This will hugely boost the government’s ‘Make in India’ campaign. This move is expected to provide a meaningful boost to exports, which earlier looked difficult due to our lack of competitiveness.

Equity Markets cheered this move as it provided boost to EPS growth.

Average effective Corporate Tax rate Across sectors:

Source: Phillips Capital

As seen from the below graph, Average effective tax rate have come down from 30-34% to 25%

What this means to EPS growth.

We will do an illustration to understand the impact.

Consider a company having EPS of Rs.1,000, primary assumption is that the company EPS will grow at 12% for year 1-5 and then will grow at 5% for Year 6-10, the terminal growth (Perpetual) is assumed 3%. Discount rate is assumed 12%. Now if we do a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis, then the total PV of Cash Flows which we get is Rs. 17,425.

As the tax rate is cut by ~10%, earlier if my profit was Rs.100 I was charged Rs.35 as tax and I used to receive Rs. 65 in my hand net of tax. With tax rate now coming down to ~25% I will get Rs.75 in hand net of Tax. So, roughly I will have 15% more in hand net of Tax.

Now if I consider same company as above, my EPS goes up by 15%, so EPS increases to Rs.1,150. With all other growth assumptions remaining same, Total PV of cash Flows which we get is Rs. 20,039 or 15% higher than the original estimate.

But, other important point to consider is the discount rate.

Yesterday, the Benchmark 10-year bond yield went up by 15bps. So, if we consider the discount rate as 12.15% instead of 12%, the EPS growth comes down to ~12.75%.  

Yesterdays announcement is expected to have total revenue loss for the government from the corporate taxes foregone would amount to Rs.1.45 lakh crs. Additionally, the export promotion measures announced on 16-Sep’19 would lead to an additional revenue loss of Rs.10,000 crs over the budgeted revenues for 2019-20. The loss in revenue could to an extent be made up from the RBI surplus transfers (Rs.58,000 crs over the budgeted amount). Also, GST collection and Direct tax collection is also not upto the mark. The overall impact could be widening fiscal deficit which can lead to higher yields.

If the yields increase by 1.25% then with discount rate touching 13.25% instead of current assumption of 12% will make this tax cut worthless i.e. Total PV of cash flows will be Rs. 17, 412.

Hence, one needs to keep an eye on Fiscal position as well.

Markets at New High!

In current week both Sensex and Nifty registered respective life highs. The newspapers projected this as a major historical event with photos of people distributing sweets while sitting in front of terminal. They also carried articles showing journey from 100 in 1979 to 39000 in April 2019. One is wondering why there is such Hype about price of something hitting a new high. If one assumes some growth rate for price of a particular thing, mathematically it is very logical that it will make a fresh life high every day. In fact, we have Liquid Funds whose NAV (that is price) makes life high every day but no one (including me) makes any buzz about it. I think there is more to read in the new high from equity markets as compared to Liquid funds.

Media is focused on Short term

The media weather print or electronic wants continuous flow of buzz and news. Most of the times the terms such as bull markets, Rally, gain, loss, selloff etc. are used loosely without context to the objectives of long term investors.

Media has vested interests in focusing on short term to ensure consumers remain adhered to its services.

For a long term investor what matters is business performance of investee companies which gets updated once based on the quarter end earnings release. Media can potentially create a news only for a day or two out of it.

Equity – a volatile asset class

Share prices and in turn Indices are volatile and more sentiment driven at least in the short term which is very different from Liquid funds. Volatile means prices move up or down from current levels that’s the reason why Equity Price movements get so much media attention. Liquid Fund prices almost always go up unidirectional hence it is not exciting enough to make a news.

Price as an indicator of sentiment?

Price has lead effect on the flows meaning when Equity prices start going up more fresh money gets attracted into the markets. This happens because investors are attracted to positive historical performance. Also most investors are Loss Averse. Imagine an investor who bought BSE Sensex at 38800 in August 2018 which turnout to be a top with the benefit of hindsight, has seen it going down to 33300 in October 2018.

At this time with notional loss of ~14% the regretful investor feels “I got stuck in this!” Come April 2019 the Sensex is close to 38800, investor’s buying level, and instinctively loss averse investor will exit here at no loss.

When price goes even higher that means the selling pressure from investors like in our example is over and there are no investors with a feeling of “I got stuck in this” and there will be potentially more investors who will be ready to invest fresh money as the historical performance has improved. This creates a typical positive feedback loop which drives positive sentiment. Hence after hitting new high and continuing to holding on to it builds foundation of positive sentiment. Positive sentiment, if backed by other fundamental factors such as earning growth and valuations can lead to sustainable up move.

What it means for long term investors

News about New High in Markets in the first place should not be looked at like red alert on standalone basis. One needs to look deeper into other aspects of breadth of the up move, valuations growth outlook. Long term investors benefit from mistakes of general investors who are driven by emotions of fear/ greed & biases like loss aversion through better understanding of fundamental factors and cyclicality in markets.